Gavin Newsom faces uphill battle in every 2028 primary state
A new primary calendar forces California Governor Gavin Newsom to campaign in six early states where his record may hurt his presidential hopes.
The Democratic primary timetable now begins with contests in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia, pushing the race to a massive Super Tuesday in early March 2028. Governor Gavin Newsom must defend a California agenda that includes allowing trans athletes in girls’ sports, protecting minors’ access to gender-affirming procedures, aggressive electrification goals, a plan to phase out oil by 2045, and opposition to data-center tax breaks.
Voters in those early states tend to be less progressive on these issues, making his record a potential handicap. A July Emerson poll places Pete Buttigieg in first with 19% and Newsom second at 17%, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads in New Hampshire with 22%. With President Donald Trump’s approval slipping, Newsom can no longer rely on anti-Trump sentiment alone. The analysis suggests that the governor’s California brand may turn into political baggage as the primary field expands.
Why it matters
Newsom’s performance in early primaries could determine whether a California governor remains a viable 2028 Democratic presidential contender.
How this story developed
- Jul 31 Hasan Piker says 2028 Democratic nominee will be anti-Israel, backs AOC
- Aug 10 Abdul El‑Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in the Michigan Senate primary.
- Aug 10 Pete Buttigieg is slated to headline a Democratic conference in South Carolina while weighing a possible 2028 presidential bid.
- Aug 11 The piece lists three controversial positions taken by Democratic officeholders between 2018 and 2024, portraying them as emblematic of a “crazy” progressive wave.
- Aug 11 Piker’s mother publicly said she does not share his enthusiasm for China.
- Aug 12 State Rep. Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialists of America member, lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary.
- Aug 12 Crowley will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in the November general election.
- Aug 13 Mike Rogers has continued to cite the 2019 Hasan Piker comment in campaign materials.
- Aug 13 Crowley re‑entered the primary after briefly withdrawing, gaining Governor Tony Evers’s endorsement.
- Aug 13 The Green Party nominated Shane Dedrick, prompting accusations of a possible Republican infiltration.
- Aug 15 Recent opinion pieces shift the focus of criticism from the Israel lobby to Islamic‑linked donors.
- Aug 15 AOC’s remark labeling the early “woke” period as “crazy” sparked widespread media reaction.
- Aug 15 The University of Washington withdrew Piker’s scheduled speech.
- Aug 16 The DNC voted to make South Carolina the first 2028 Democratic primary.
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