Global jihadist movement weakens after three decades of U.S. counterterrorism

The September 11 attacks propelled the United States into a prolonged "war on terrorism," leading to the overthrow of the Taliban and the loss of al-Qaeda’s Afghan sanctuaries. Subsequent U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with drone campaigns and intelligence cooperation, dismantled training camps and disrupted networks, curbing the ability of groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State to launch major attacks.

Although the 2003 Iraq war briefly boosted recruitment and gave rise to ISIS, the group’s territorial defeat by the mid-2020s eroded its appeal. Recent regional wars—Israel’s Gaza campaign, the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, and the fall of Assad—have not produced a new jihadist surge, as former Syrian fighters now pursue state-building and foreign investment. While jihadist ideology endures, its capacity to mount large-scale operations has faded, leaving the United States to maintain a low-level, intelligence-driven counterterrorism posture to prevent resurgence.