India's SCO envoy visit sparks cautious optimism amid Pakistan's Russian overtures

During a recent visit to the National Council of Arts in Islamabad, Alok Dimri, India's SCO national coordinator, voiced satisfaction with his reception, a gesture that may ease some of the historic animosity between India and Pakistan. The visit, however, should not be over-interpreted as a sign of a major diplomatic thaw, especially given the absence of any concrete moves such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi attending the upcoming SCO summit.

Pakistan is keen on leveraging a potential Russian presence at the summit to advance its strategic ambitions, including a long-discussed Moscow-Islamabad railway and a freight corridor through Central Asia or Iran. Yet Russia is likely to remain cautious, balancing its deep defence and economic ties with India against divergent regional priorities, particularly concerning Afghanistan. Trade figures illustrate the gap: Pakistan’s bilateral commerce with Russia stays below half a billion dollars, far short of the roughly $69 billion India-Russia trade. While Russia seeks to maintain a broad partnership network, its defence cooperation with Pakistan remains limited, reflecting both historical legacies and present-day geopolitical calculations.