Iranian proxies seize Bab el-Mandeb and hit Saudi pipeline, betting on US fatigue

In a swift campaign, Houthi forces aligned with Tehran secured Yemen’s Red Sea shoreline and the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including Perim Island and the Hanish archipelago. At the same time, drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the route that feeds the Yanbu export terminal. Iran’s long-term strategy relies on low-cost proxies to disrupt key maritime and overland oil routes, inflating energy prices and insurance costs to make the conflict politically unsustainable for the United States ahead of the November midterm elections.

Riyadh has exercised restraint, publicly asking Iraq not to retaliate and avoiding escalation on multiple fronts. These actions reflect a broader shift in Gulf security calculations, with Saudi Arabia balancing pressure on Washington against a cautious stance toward direct confrontation with Iran-aligned forces. Tehran’s objective is not a conventional battlefield win but to wear down US domestic support for a prolonged war.