Israel's Oct. 27 election could reshape Netanyahu's rule and coalition dynamics

On Oct. 27 Israelis will elect representatives for all 120 Knesset seats, the first vote after the Oct. 7 Hamas assault and the subsequent Gaza conflict. Opinion polls place Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist bloc just under the opposition alliance, but no party is expected to secure an outright majority of 61 seats. Consequently, coalition bargaining will determine who governs, with possibilities including a Netanyahu government backed by allies like Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, an opposition-led coalition headed by figures such as Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett, or a minority government supported externally by Arab-Israeli parties.

The United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List, representing roughly 20 % of Israel’s population, could supply crucial seats, though many opposition leaders have ruled out formal alliances with them. Other scenarios involve a national unity cabinet, a rotating premiership, or a repeat election if no stable coalition emerges.