Labour and candidate Mananui Ramsden lead Te Tai Tonga poll ahead of incumbent

Curia Market Research released its first major Māori-seat poll for the 2026 election, sampling 500 registered voters in Te Tai Tonga between September 14-24. Labour leads both the party vote (28%) and its candidate Mananui Ramsden (30%) over incumbent independent Tākuta Ferris (15%). The Greens hold 14% and Te Pāti Māori 11%, with 10% of respondents undecided.

Candidate-specific figures show Lisa Marie Murch of Te Pāti Māori at 17% and Green candidate Lisa Te Morenga at 16%. Ferris received a net positive approval rating, and voters identified cost-of-living, healthcare and jobs as top issues. The poll’s margin of error is ±4.5% at a 95% confidence level. Findings will be examined in a live debate on Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+ this evening, moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox.