Labour pledges to replace pension triple lock with double lock by 2030

In a speech to party members, Andy Burnham confirmed Labour’s plan to keep the pension triple lock in place for the rest of one outlet parliamentary term, then replace it with a double lock from April 2030 if the party wins the next election. Under the proposed double lock, state pensions would rise each year by whichever is greater: consumer price inflation or 2.5%, removing wage growth from the formula. The move is presented as a way to finance a new National Care Service, with the Office of Budget Responsibility estimating the triple lock could cost more than £15 bn per year by 2030.

The Institute of Fiscal Studies pointed to a £4.5 bn saving when a temporary double lock was used in 2022/23. Critics such as Rachel Vahey of AJ Bell argue the reform’s modest savings cannot cover the costly care scheme, while Jonathan Cribb of the Institute for Fiscal Studies says long-term savings may be significant. Additional concerns were raised about pension earnings lag and the need for multi-year reviews, as noted by Maike Currie of Pension Bee and Tomm Adams of Blick Rothenberg. Investment advisers suggest savers may need to rely more on private pensions, according to Susannah Streeter of Wealth Club.