Met Office warns of unsettled autumn weather and cooler London nights
The Met Office forecasts increasingly wet and windy conditions for the rest of October, with daytime highs around 11-12 °C and the chance of frost on colder nights.
The Met Office’s newest long-range forecast signals a shift toward unsettled weather across the UK for the balance of October, with repeated wet and windy episodes arriving from the Atlantic. Daytime temperatures are expected to stay between 11 °C and 12 °C, feeling cool under a gentle north-westerly flow, while occasional milder periods may appear, especially in the south. Between frontal passages, colder nights could bring a touch of frost.
Chief meteorologist Ian Lisk said the outlook aligns with seasonal forecasts that anticipate wetter-than-average conditions, a pattern historically tied to El Niño events. Tim Stockdale added that the early winter is likely to be milder, wetter and windier. The World Meteorological Organization’s secretary-general, Celeste Saulo, warned that one outlet El Niño is intensifying quickly, potentially becoming one of the strongest in seven decades.
Why it matters
Britons should prepare for cooler, wetter October weather and possible frost, affecting daily life and travel.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 3 UN says the El Niño is expected to remain in place until February 2027.
- Sep 7 Britain announced cuts of more than 80 % to bilateral aid in eight African states.
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 21 The system, now classified as a hurricane, is positioned about 270 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo and 190 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Forecasts suggest it could reach major-hurricane strength by Tuesday and maintain a trajectory offshore while dumping 4-8 inches of rain across Guerrero and Michoacan through Thursday. Tourist hubs such as Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara may experience rough seas and gusty conditions, and the moisture could trigger flash-flood threats in the U.S. Southwest later in the week.
- Sep 23 Polo intensified to Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.
- Sep 24 Authorities opened shelters and deployed thousands of military and Red Cross personnel to assist affected communities.
- Sep 29 Probability estimates now place a greater than 90% chance that the El Niño will remain very strong through February 2027.
- Oct 2 Manila Water Philippine Ventures is stepping up its water-supply safeguards after PAGASA projected a very strong El Niño that could last until the first quarter of 2027.
- Oct 7 The Department of Agriculture in Bicol rolled out a major aid package for farmers and fishers ahead of the El Niño.
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