MRP model shows Labour would win a clear majority if election were called now
An MRP poll by Electoral Calculus projects Labour at 28% of the vote, which would translate into 353 seats under First-Past-the-Post, giving the party a comfortable majority.
Electoral Calculus released an MRP projection that assumes a general election held today. Labour would capture 28% of the popular vote, converting to 353 seats and a solid majority in the House of Commons. Reform UK and the Conservatives would obtain 21% and 18% of the vote respectively, yielding 81 and 90 seats.
Smaller parties would win modest numbers: Liberal Democrats 70 seats, SNP 28, Greens four. The forecast also identifies vulnerable seats, naming Labour MP Shabana Mahmood as likely to be unseated by the Greens, and Conservative MPs Chris Philp, Rebecca Paul, Victoria Atkins and Kevin Hollinrake as at risk of defeat to Labour or Reform. The SNP’s recent argument that it could hold the balance of power in a hung parliament is undermined by these figures. The poll reflects a rise for Labour since January, while Reform UK’s share has slipped, partly due to the emergence of Restore Britain.
How this story developed
- Sep 29 Andy Burnham signals possible UK return to the EU after condemning Brexit
- Sep 30 The Prime Minister now says re‑joining the EU is among the options the government will consider.
- Sep 30 Burnham signaled that full EU membership is among the possible routes Labour could evaluate.
- Oct 3 A new poll shows half of British adults now support rejoining the EU.
- Oct 4 Kemi Badenoch opened the Conservative conference by framing the Tories as a common-sense party, unveiling pledges on tighter welfare, prison expansion and free childcare for high-earning families.
- Oct 5 Badenoch pushed to drop the £100,000 childcare tax cap at the conference.
- Oct 6 Announced a cut to employer National Insurance for 21‑ to 24‑year‑olds from 15% to 7.5%.
- Oct 7 Badenoch announced a defence spending target of 3% of GDP.
- Oct 8 Badenoch denounced Reform UK as ethnically exclusive at the conference.
- Oct 8 Burnham announced that the pension triple‑lock will be scrapped after the next general election and its savings will fund a National Care Service.
- Oct 13 YouGov’s latest survey indicates that Reform has reclaimed the third-most-favoured position, surpassing the Conservative Party for the first time since early 2024, though the margin is within the poll’s error range. The poll suggests the Conservatives may have benefited from recent conference coverage, while Labour’s support appears to be fading. In the Commons, MP Burnham affirmed the legitimacy of recent election results but highlighted concerns over foreign actors seeking to influence UK democracy.
- Oct 14 Dean Miller, a Reform UK councillor in Bromley, quit after secret recordings captured him making racist comments and claiming King Charles is Muslim.
- Oct 18 Ipsos poll shows Conservatives have moved ahead of Reform UK in the opposition race.
- Oct 19 The party has suspended activist Jason Powell and opened investigations into several councillors.
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