Netanyahu faces complex coalition math as election looms over 61-seat threshold

Most opinion polls project that Netanyahu's core parties will not reach the 61 seats needed to command a stable government, prompting the prime minister to stress the importance of high voter participation. The immediate hurdle for any coalition is the haredi draft exemption issue, which caused Shas and United Torah Judaism to quit the previous government and now ties their support to new legislation regulating yeshiva students.

Additional demands come from Otzma Yehudit, which seeks the Defense Ministry, and Religious Zionist-Zehut, which pushes an aggressive settlement and judicial agenda. Smaller groups like Amcha Yisrael and the joint Reservists-Economic Party could provide the extra votes, but their conditions on conscription and refusal to sit with ultra-Orthodox parties complicate talks. Recruiting defectors from the opposition seems improbable, and a broad unity cabinet would likely require sidelining hard-line partners or even replacing Netanyahu as prime minister. If no agreement emerges, Netanyahu may remain caretaker prime minister while the Knesset operates under opposition control, risking another election within 90 days.