New poll shows Marine Le Pen widening lead over any second-round opponent
An interactive Toluna-Harris poll indicates Marine Le Pen would beat each listed rival by a large margin in a presidential runoff.
A recent Toluna-Harris online poll commissioned by RTL and M6 shows Marine Le Pen leading comfortably over any possible second-round challenger. If faced with Horizons candidate Édouard Philippe, she would obtain roughly 57% of the vote, while a matchup with Jean-Luc Mélenchon would give her about 69%. The study places other figures such as Raphaël Glucksmann and François Hollande at lower levels, each receiving single-digit percentages.
Gabriel Attal, one outlet prime minister, is projected to lag behind Philippe. Minor party leaders like Éric Zemmour, Marine Tondelier, Fabien Roussel and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan each attract between 2% and 6% of support. The poll reflects current voter preferences but carries the usual margin of error for opinion surveys.
Why it matters
The poll highlights Marine Le Pen's strong position ahead of the 2027 French presidential election.
How the sides frame it
LOW AGREEMENTLeft-leaning and centrist coverage focus on former President Hollande’s tentative openness to run only if a realistic chance of victory exists, while right-leaning coverage highlights a poll showing Marine Le Pen far ahead and a likely contest between political extremes.
LEFT
Coverage presents Hollande’s possible 2027 candidacy as conditional on a realistic chance of winning and limited to exceptional circumstances.
CENTER
Coverage mirrors the left, emphasizing Hollande would only consider running if he sees a genuine prospect of reaching the second round and winning.
RIGHT
Coverage frames the poll as evidence that Le Pen is leading comfortably, suggesting a presidential run-off between far-right and far-left while centrists lag amid economic and geopolitical woes.
The left emphasises
- candidacy only if realistic chance of victory
- consider only under exceptional circumstances
- need to reach second round and ultimately win
The right emphasises
- Le Pen leads comfortably in poll
- run-off between extremes (far-right vs far-left)
- Centrists falling behind amid rising prices, sluggish economy, geopolitical instability
How this story developed
- Sep 12 Zelensky denounces EU talks to lift sanctions on Russian oligarchs
- Sep 15 EU Coreper authorized a week‑long postponement of the sanctions expiry.
- Sep 17 The European Commission will disburse €3.3 billion to Ukraine for missile and drone purchases, announced by Ursula von der Leyen following a call with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
- Sep 21 Preliminary results show United Russia winning 355 of the 450 State Duma seats, surpassing its previous 2016 high. The foreign ministries of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway issued a joint statement condemning elections held in Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions seized by Russia as violations of Ukraine's sovereignty. They demanded accountability for those organizing the vote and urged Russia to end its war and accept an unconditional ceasefire. The same period saw France support the removal of oligarch Alisher Usmanov from the EU sanctions list, a move backed by Slovakia and linked to broader negotiations over detained French nationals in Azerbaijan.
- Sep 21 Western allies issued a joint declaration condemning the election as a breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- Sep 22 EU announced a €3.3 billion release for Ukrainian missile and drone purchases.
- Sep 22 Latvia announced it will not back the proposal to delist Usmanov and Fridman, prompting an emergency cabinet meeting.
- Sep 23 Latvia ultimately abstained in the EU vote, enabling renewal of the wider sanctions package while accepting the delisting of Usmanov and Fridman.
- Sep 24 Reports allege that corporate managers pressured staff to vote for United Russia, suggesting coercion in the electoral process.
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