Oil shipments through Hormuz higher than earlier estimates, analyst says
Maritime data firm Kpler now estimates an average of 8.6 million barrels of oil cross the Strait of Hormuz each day, revising earlier lower figures.
Kpler, a maritime analytics company, has updated its figures to show that roughly 8.6 million barrels of oil travel through the Strait of Hormuz each day, a level higher than the 5 million barrels previously reported. The revision stems from the inclusion of “dark transits,” where tankers disable their tracking devices and engage in secret ship-to-ship transfers to avoid Iranian threats. These hidden operations had caused earlier estimates to miss a substantial share of the flow.
The revised average matches the 9 million-barrel daily estimate mentioned by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and the Trump administration’s earlier claims. Kpler notes that once a movement is verified, it is back-dated to its likely transit date, allowing the historical record to be corrected rather than creating artificial spikes. Despite the increase, current volumes remain well below the pre-war peak of about 20 million barrels per day.
Why it matters
Accurate oil flow data affect global markets and inform assessments of Middle East shipping security.
How this story developed
- Jul 20 U.S. and Iran intensify air strikes over Strait of Hormuz, diplomacy stalls
- Aug 28 Six months after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the war shows no sign of ending, leaving Arab nations to grapple with economic shocks and heightened security concerns.
- Aug 28 Iran announced it will set conditions that must be met before the Strait of Hormuz can resume normal shipping.
- Aug 28 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled the new sanctions package.
- Aug 29 Iran’s foreign minister announced that Tehran is still ready for diplomatic engagement if Washington ends its pressure tactics.
- Aug 29 U.S. forces have cleared mines in the Strait of Hormuz and are escorting roughly 1,500 commercial vessels through the passage.
- Aug 30 The United States hit Lark Island in southern Iran, targeting rocket launchers, marking its first attack on the country since late July.
- Aug 30 Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appointed hard‑line allies to senior security positions.
- Aug 30 Treasury filed a draft regulation that could block the UAE branches of Banque Misr from U.S. correspondent banking.
- Aug 31 Iran appointed senior Revolutionary Guard and security officers to key posts, tightening internal leadership.
- Aug 31 Bessent announced that secondary sanctions will be issued on a weekly basis.
- Aug 31 The Centre for Economics and Business Research forecasts an average UK household will lose about £2,400 in real income by 2027 because of the conflict.
- Aug 31 Iranian media claimed a bulk carrier was seized and an oil supertanker hit mines, while U.S. officials said no vessels were struck.
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