Polish fuel wholesale prices surge as government profit tax law faces presidential pushback

According to e-petrol, wholesale prices for Pb98 and Pb95 gasoline rose by 184 zł and 123 zł per cubic meter last Friday, hitting 7,291 zł and 6,469 zł, while diesel fell 41 zł to 7,483 zł. Analysts say fuel stations are trying to keep diesel prices below 9 zł per litre, which is eroding retail margins, whereas gasoline margins remain small but positive. Forecasts for the week of 28 September to 4 October put Pb98 at 8.85-8.99 zł per litre, Pb95 at 7.97-8.09 zł, and diesel at 8.99-9.29 zł, with LPG expected at 3.14-3.24 zł.

The temporary CPN price-cap scheme ended on 1 September, after which prices rose sharply; the program had reduced VAT on certain fuels from 23 % to 8 %. The Sejm recently passed a law taxing extraordinary profits from fuel sales between March 2026 and March 2027, intended to fund the CPN shield, but President Karol Nawrocki sent a prior version to the Constitutional Tribunal and now argues the law is unconstitutional, offering his own “Fuel Costs Normal” proposal to eliminate retail taxes and cap margins.