Poll shows Coalition poised to end 12-year Labor rule in Victoria

A new Newspoll commissioned by Pyxis Polling & Insights indicates the Coalition is ahead of Labor 55-45 on a two-party-preferred basis, positioning Opposition Leader Jess Wilson for a likely victory in Victoria’s next election. First-preference voting is projected to be fragmented, with the Coalition at 33%, Labor at 24%, One Nation at about 20% and the Greens at 14%, a shift from the previous election’s primary-vote distribution.

The poll comes after Labor’s leadership upheaval, when deputy leader Ben Carroll removed Premier Jacinta Allan, a move political scientist Zareh Ghazarian argues leaves the party vulnerable. Ghazarian cited historical examples of Victorian governments that faltered after mid-term leadership changes. The Labor government, led by Dan Andrews since 2014, has faced criticism over its COVID-19 response and alleged construction-industry corruption, further eroding public support. These factors contribute to the projected swing toward the Coalition in the upcoming vote.