Polls show opposition poised to win over half the vote in upcoming Spanish election
Recent private polls indicate the centre-right parties will capture more than 51% of the vote, while the governing PSOE trails at around 26%.
A series of private opinion polls released by various media outlets show the opposition bloc—PP, PSOE and Vox—surpassing 51% of the popular vote ahead of the snap election. The Partido Popular is expected to receive about 33% of the vote, which would give it roughly 140 seats, slightly more than it currently holds. The PSOE’s support is estimated near 26%, its weakest performance in recent general elections, translating to about 106 seats.
Vox is positioned close to its all-time peak and would likely win around 64 seats. Together, the opposition parties would command a clear majority in the 350-seat Congress, while radical left parties remain without a candidate and hold negligible influence. The polls are based on fieldwork from 22 September to 3 October 2026 and use the latest INE census data.
Why it matters
The poll results suggest a decisive shift toward opposition parties, shaping Spain's political landscape before the upcoming election.
How this story developed
- Oct 6 Spanish Supreme Court Cancels Arrest Warrants for Catalan Leader Puigdemont and Advisors
- Oct 6 Supreme Court magistrate Pablo Llarena cancelled the national arrest warrants for Puigdemont and his advisers.
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