Polls show PSOE slipping below 26% as opposition parties surge ahead

The median of nine private polls taken from the end of August to late September shows the PSOE slipping to below 26% of voter intention, a level not seen in the past three years and lower than its performance in the July 2023 general election. Left-wing formations Sumar and Podemos each attract less than 10% of the electorate, leaving the governing bloc with a deficit of roughly 2.8 million votes since the summer. In contrast, the centre-right People's Party and the far-right Vox together capture more than half of the valid votes, which would translate into well over 200 seats for the opposition, enough for a three-fifths parliamentary majority.

The polling period coincided with large housing protests in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol, echoing the 2011 “15-M” movement. Analysts note that despite government attempts to mobilise supporters, the left shows no sign of recovery, while the right maintains its lead.