Pollster says Greens could become kingmakers in a hung UK Parliament
John Curtice told a Green Party fringe event in Brighton that the Greens may hold decisive sway if a hung parliament emerges.
At a fringe gathering of the Green Party of England and Wales in Brighton, organised by the cross-party think-tank Demos, poll expert John Curtice warned that the Greens could become pivotal in the next UK government. He referred to a YouGov MRP poll that projects Labour as the largest party in a hung Parliament, with 241 seats, while the Greens might secure nine seats and the SNP around 40. Curtice explained that Labour combined with the Liberal Democrats would still fall short of the 326 seats required for a majority, giving the Greens potential bargaining power despite their modest seat count.
He noted that in several constituencies Labour leads but the Greens are second, indicating shifting voter dynamics. Former Green leader and peer Natalie Bennett echoed the analysis, calling the situation a real challenge and an opportunity to turn second-place finishes into victories. Both speakers stressed the strategic importance of the Greens in any coalition talks.
Why it matters
The Greens' potential leverage could shape coalition negotiations and policy direction in a future UK government.
How this story developed
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- Sep 4 Reform UK invited Bardella to speak at its Birmingham conference.
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- Sep 22 YouGov's latest seat-by-seat model indicates Reform UK would secure just 123 seats if a general election were called today, a sharp drop from a similar poll a year ago. Labour is forecast to lead with 241 seats, followed by the Conservatives at 130, while the Liberal Democrats hold steady at 71. The results point to the first hung parliament since the 2010 coalition. Reform also appears to be losing its high-profile MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman back to the Conservatives. The party's decline follows recent scandals involving alleged off-the-books polling and the suspension of aides Dan Jukes and James Orr, prompting a Met Police investigation.
- Sep 25 A new YouGov poll shows Reform UK level with the Conservatives and behind Labour.
- Sep 27 The party has moved from internal frustration to publicly unveiling a health‑and‑economy platform at its conference.
- Sep 28 Lee Anderson announced a “whip round” to raise funds for the woman struck with a walking stick.
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