Putin adopts new missile and drone strategy to pressure Ukraine ahead of 2027
The Institute for the Study of War says President Vladimir Putin is shifting toward extensive missile and drone attacks to force Ukraine's surrender before spring 2027.
The Institute for the Study of War assesses that President Vladimir Putin is revising Russia's war plan by emphasizing broad missile and drone offensives. This shift is intended to pressure Ukraine into surrendering before the spring of 2027. Throughout September, Russian forces deployed numerous Shahed-type loitering drones, with a substantial portion being shot down by Ukrainian defenses.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has pointed to the scale of the drone and artillery usage. The think-tank notes that the Kremlin is unlikely to soften its demands or enter serious ceasefire talks until the new strike strategy has run its course. Recent Russian strikes have resulted in 14 fatalities and 57 injuries in various parts of Ukraine, underscoring the heightened intensity of the campaign.
Why it matters
The tactical shift could intensify the conflict and affect Ukraine's ability to resist Russian advances.
How this story developed
- Sep 1 Russia multiplies jet-powered Shahed drone strikes fivefold in one month
- Sep 21 Russia's defence ministry said it will increase the frequency and precision of its strikes on Kyiv.
- Sep 21 Partial results show United Russia holding at least 338 of the 450 Duma seats.
- Sep 21 Preliminary results show United Russia winning 355 of the 450 State Duma seats, surpassing its previous 2016 high. The foreign ministries of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway issued a joint statement condemning elections held in Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions seized by Russia as violations of Ukraine's sovereignty. They demanded accountability for those organizing the vote and urged Russia to end its war and accept an unconditional ceasefire. The same period saw France support the removal of oligarch Alisher Usmanov from the EU sanctions list, a move backed by Slovakia and linked to broader negotiations over detained French nationals in Azerbaijan.
- Sep 21 The Quai d’Orsay condemns holding the vote in the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, calling it a violation of international law and the UN Charter and stating Fran
- Sep 21 Western allies issued a joint declaration condemning the election as a breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- Sep 24 Reports allege that corporate managers pressured staff to vote for United Russia, suggesting coercion in the electoral process.
- Sep 25 Twin drone alerts triggered deployments of Spanish F‑18s and Romanian F‑16s to monitor the airspace.
- Sep 25 Ukrainian commanders announced further territorial gains around Lyman since the initial report.
- Sep 26 Russia has refused ICRC‑facilitated evacuations for Oleshky residents.
- Sep 26 President Trump publicly urged Ukraine to negotiate a settlement with Russia.
- Sep 27 Operators now use Discord to coordinate the robots with drones.
- Sep 28 The last ground convoy reached Oleshky on May 26, and no further deliveries have been reported.
- Sep 28 Ukrainian forces announced the latest village recaptures as part of Operation Vivaldi’s third phase.
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