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Russia may test NATO cohesion with limited push into eastern Baltic states, says President

President Petr Pavel warned that Russia could launch a constrained incursion into eastern Estonia or Latvia to probe NATO unity.

State officials, among them President Petr Pavel, indicated that Russia could consider a restricted incursion into the eastern regions of Estonia or Latvia to assess the cohesion of NATO members. The plan involves a modest action, potentially disguised by a false flag, aimed at nations backing Ukraine. Pavel noted that Russia does not possess the resources for a broad military offensive against the alliance, highlighting the need for readiness among Czech and NATO forces.

The Czech Republic and other NATO allies are reportedly developing contingency plans for such a scenario. No indication was given that the operation is scheduled for a specific season.

Why it matters

It signals a possible new flashpoint in NATO's eastern border, affecting regional security.

In this story

Russialimited incursionBaltic statesNATO cohesionsecurity scenario
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