Sabato’s Crystal Ball labels Florida Senate contest a safe Republican seat
After a socialist candidate won the Democratic primary, Sabato’s Crystal Ball reclassified the Florida Senate race as safely Republican.
In Tuesday’s primary, State Rep. Angie Nixon, aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, overcame retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman to claim the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from Florida. The University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Sabato’s Crystal Ball responded by moving the contest to a “safe Republican” rating, reflecting incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody’s substantial financial advantage of about $8.4 million compared with Nixon’s cash on hand of less than $300,000.
Managing editor Kyle Kondik highlighted the difficulty of mounting a viable statewide campaign without comparable funding. Moody, who was appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis after Marco Rubio’s departure, benefits from a state that voted 13 points for Donald Trump in 2024. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Florida was Bill Nelson in 2012, before Rick Scott’s 2018 victory. While Nixon’s grassroots support earned her the nomination, other progressive challengers in the state have not fared as well, and the Cook Political Report also rates the race as safely Republican.
Why it matters
The rating underscores the uphill financial and political odds a socialist challenger faces in a traditionally Republican-leaning Senate seat.
How this story developed
- Aug 14 Poll Shows Democrat Gray Narrowly Closing Gap with Rep. Luna in Florida Race
- Aug 14 Governor Ron DeSantis said he will not endorse Rep. Cory Mills, who is under a House Ethics Committee probe and faces personal allegations, as the Florida congressional primary approaches.
- Aug 17 During a weekend broadcast, Oliver Larkin, running for the U.S. House in Florida's 25th District, asserted that Israel was carrying out genocide, citing the United Nations and human-rights groups. Host Glenna Milberg countered, stating the claim was factually incorrect under the UN definition. After a brief exchange, Milberg announced the segment was ending, and the interview concluded abruptly. Larkin’s campaign has not responded to inquiries about the cut-short interview.
- Aug 18 New poll shows Casey Askar holding a slim lead among multiple candidates in the 22nd District Republican primary.
- Aug 18 Florida's primary elections feature a historic Black Republican gubernatorial candidate and a crowded Democratic field, while both parties gauge Donald Trump's influence in the state.
- Aug 18 The poll also recorded Terri Hasdorff, Michael Thompson and Richard Evans receiving low single‑digit support.
- Aug 18 The primary has taken place, confirming Donalds’s lead and adding a high‑profile celebrity endorsement.
- Aug 18 Byron Donalds announced his run for governor, triggering a crowded primary for his congressional seat.
- Aug 18 A new poll shows Ryan Elijah leading Cory Mills in the GOP primary.
- Aug 19 Socialist state Rep. Angie Nixon beat Alex Vindman in Florida’s Democratic Senate primary and will face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November.
- Aug 19 Nixon's primary victory sets up a general‑election contest against Republican Senator Ashley Moody.
- Aug 19 Trump publicly asked Cory Mills to drop out of the race and gave his full endorsement to Ryan Elijah.
- Aug 19 The Democratic primary between Moskowitz and Larkin has been held.
In this story
Related stories
13 in this thread