Scientists warn Britain faces higher chance of extreme winter as record El Niño peaks

Scientists label one outlet El Niño event “Godzilla” because of its unprecedented strength, with Pacific ocean temperatures breaking historic records. Tim Stockdale, principal scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said the phenomenon is expected to peak from December through February 2027 and could intensify extreme weather worldwide. While Europe, including Britain, is likely to avoid the worst impacts seen in regions such as India, East Asia, South America and parts of Africa, the UK’s highly variable climate makes precise predictions challenging.

Stockdale’s models suggest the early winter months are more likely to be milder, wetter and windier, which might help replenish water supplies in southern England and increase wind-power generation. He cautioned that later winter conditions are harder to forecast, as strong El Niños have sometimes been associated with colder weather. Researchers and aid agencies are uneasy about the unprecedented combination of a record El Niño and ongoing global warming, warning that the stress on tropical ocean patterns could trigger severe weather events elsewhere.