Sociologist close to PSOE predicts only 6% chance for left to govern

During an appearance on TVE's La Noche en 24 horas, sociologist and university professor Ignacio Urquizu, a former PSOE deputy (2016-2019), offered his own forecast for the forthcoming general election. He asserted that the probability of a left-wing government is about 6%. Urquizu explained that private poll averages show the PP leading with a seat count similar to 2023, and that the PP-Vox alliance will likely secure fewer than 200 seats, around 185-186, echoing the 2011 result under Mariano Rajoy.

He highlighted that the right bloc is well-consolidated, with 8% of PSOE voters leaning toward PP and 3% toward Vox. Historically, the centrist (mid-scale) electorate tends to back the eventual winner, and Urquizu believes these voters have already turned away from the PSOE, further limiting the left's prospects.