Supreme Court split on Trump’s mail-ballot rules leaves 2028 election future uncertain

In March, President Trump signed an executive order requiring the Postal Service to introduce uniform ballot envelopes marked “Official Election Mail” and unique machine-readable barcodes, and to refuse ballots that do not meet these standards or that lack state-verified voter lists. On September 14, the Supreme Court rejected a request to lift a preliminary injunction that had barred the rules from being used in the upcoming midterms, voting 7-2 to maintain the block.

Justices Thomas and Alito dissented, while Justice Kavanaugh noted that even if the Postal Service has authority, the proximity to an election makes implementation problematic. Experts argue the Court’s ultimate decision will depend on whether it treats the order as a federal election regulation—likely invalidating it—or as a simple administrative measure for postal efficiency, which could be upheld. The ruling leaves the fate of the mail-ballot reforms uncertain as the 2028 presidential election approaches, and the president has denounced the injunction as a major defeat for Republicans.