Texas Senate Contest Tightens as Young Voters Surge Behind Democrat Talarico

According to a late-July poll released by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, Democratic Rep. James Talarico now leads Attorney General Ken Paxton 76% to 18% among likely voters under 35, a 17-point swing since the previous survey. The same poll, fielded Sept. 15-19 with a margin of error of ±2.31 points, shows the overall contest essentially deadlocked at 47% for Talarico and 46% for Paxton, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 4% undecided.

A win for Talarico would be the first Democratic statewide victory in Texas in over thirty years. Paxton’s recent effort to create student chapters on campuses has not stemmed the loss of young support, which has largely migrated to Talarico, who has focused on podcasts and online shows popular with younger men. The poll also notes that younger voters favor Democrats in other statewide races, and that older voters continue to back Paxton, highlighting the demographic divide shaping the election.