Think Tank Outlines Possible Limited Russian Incursion into Estonia’s Narva

In a Monday publication, the Institute for the Study of War presented a hypothetical operation in which Russian operatives seize the Narva Museum and city hall, declare a “Narva People’s Republic,” and claim the need to protect Russian citizens. The plan relies on first-person-view drones, electronic-warfare tools and a limited number of special-force troops rather than a full conventional invasion. The scenario references a September 16, 2026 FSB order imposing a ten-day movement ban on the Narva River, a firearms ban on the Russian side, and a partial curfew.

Its purpose, according to the authors, would be to create a political crisis within NATO and probe the credibility of Article 5. While dismissing a full-scale invasion as unlikely while Russia is engaged in Ukraine, the think tank urges NATO to improve rapid-deployment counter-drone and electronic-warfare systems and to reaffirm a clear U.S. commitment to European defence.