UK faces growing breakup pressure as new prime minister eyes EU re-entry
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, barely ten weeks in office, is confronting separatist moves in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland while reviving talk of a second EU referendum.
During a United Nations Leaders Week meeting, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese greeted Britain’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who is the fifth UK premier in his term. Ten weeks after taking office, Burnham is already dealing with the Cardiff Declaration, a pact signed by the heads of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to pursue self-determination referendums, reflecting the first time all three are led by separatist parties.
While the Scottish National Party pushes for another vote after the narrow 2014 defeat, Wales remains the least separatist, and Northern Ireland’s option would involve reunification with the Republic of Ireland under the Good Friday Agreement. Simultaneously, Burnham has signaled that Labour may adopt a policy for a second EU membership referendum, a move supported by Tony Blair and welcomed by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who suggested an associate-member status similar to Canada’s. The convergence of Celtic nationalism and renewed EU ambitions could determine whether Labour retains power and whether the United Kingdom remains intact.
Why it matters
The UK's political stability and its relationship with the EU hinge on separatist pushes and a possible Brexit reversal.
How this story developed
- Sep 21 Labour insiders deny early election plans amid polling boost and Reform UK funding scandal
- Sep 22 YouGov's latest seat-by-seat model indicates Reform UK would secure just 123 seats if a general election were called today, a sharp drop from a similar poll a year ago. Labour is forecast to lead with 241 seats, followed by the Conservatives at 130, while the Liberal Democrats hold steady at 71. The results point to the first hung parliament since the 2010 coalition. Reform also appears to be losing its high-profile MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman back to the Conservatives. The party's decline follows recent scandals involving alleged off-the-books polling and the suspension of aides Dan Jukes and James Orr, prompting a Met Police investigation.
- Sep 25 A new YouGov poll shows Reform UK level with the Conservatives and behind Labour.
- Sep 26 Labour’s party chair urged vigilance at the start of the Liverpool conference amid a poll surge.
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