Washington Should Plan for Iran’s Potential Collapse, Not Just Its Survival

For decades the United States has treated Iran as a problem to be contained, deterred and negotiated with, but the author argues this approach is outdated as the Islamic Republic shows signs of internal decay. The state’s ideology fuses Khomeinist revolutionary Shiism with remnants of Marxist-inspired radicalism, turning religious rituals like the Arbaeen pilgrimage into tools of geopolitical mobilization. Economic decline, social alienation and a mythic messianic narrative have left the regime increasingly reliant on coercion, raising the risk of fragmentation, armed rivalries and refugee flows.

Yet U.S. policy still lacks an explicit regime-change strategy, focusing instead on sanctions and deterrence. The article calls for a comprehensive, inter-agency framework to secure nuclear facilities, monitor IRGC and intelligence networks, prevent terrorist migration, and support legitimate democratic forces should the government collapse. Preparing now, rather than reacting after a breakdown, is presented as essential to protect regional allies and global security.