Youth vote in Spain shows split on housing and party preference ahead of November election
Analysts say Spain's new young voters are divided by housing concerns and gender, with no clear tilt toward any party as the November election approaches.
Survey specialists contend that the latest polls already include the cohort of first-time voters, yet their voting behavior is highly volatile and split along gender lines. Housing scarcity drives a sizable share of young men toward the right-wing Vox, whereas young women facing rental pressures lean more to the centre-left PSOE and Sumar. Social media platforms such as Instagram and TikTok are the primary news sources for many in this age group, and political affinity tests and AI chatbots are used for guidance, though studies show limited impact on actual vote choice.
Turnout projections for these voters range between 60 % and 65 %, translating to a modest share of total votes. Analysts warn that the crucial factor will be the timing of decisions, with a third of young voters finalising their choice in the week before the election, making predictions difficult.
Why it matters
The youth electorate could sway the balance of power in Spain's upcoming election, but its unpredictability makes outcomes uncertain.
How this story developed
- Oct 5 Spain's Supreme Court suspends overseas voting for new citizens under grandchildren law
- Oct 6 The Spanish Supreme Court has nullified the national arrest warrants for Carles Puigdemont and two former advisers, allowing him to return to Spain.
- Oct 6 Supreme Court magistrate Pablo Llarena cancelled the national arrest warrants for Puigdemont and his advisers.
- Oct 7 Supreme Court judge issued a provisional annulment of Puigdemont’s arrest warrant, pending a separate tribunal meeting on the full amnesty application.
- Oct 15 Ce.DEU submitted legal objections to the Supreme Court's voting suspension decree.
- Oct 19 The quarterly barometer, funded by the Junta de Andalucía, indicates that the People's Party under Juanma Moreno would remain the most voted force in the region, though it would not regain an absolute majority. The Socialist Party, led nationally by Pedro Sánchez, appears to be losing support, while the far-right Vox and the regional Adelante Andalucía both show notable gains. The coalition Por Andalucía, headed by Antonio Maíllo, is projected to stay roughly steady.
- Oct 21 The Constitutional Court has begun reviewing the ombudsman's emergency filing.
- Oct 21 The European Public Prosecutor’s Office carried out raids on the Patriots for Europe group’s offices in Brussels and Strasbourg, investigating alleged misuse of EU Parliament funds.
- Oct 21 Constitutional Court refused to admit the Ombudsman’s amparo challenging the voting suspension.
- Oct 22 The investigation now includes raids on Patriots for Europe offices in both Brussels and Strasbourg.
- Oct 23 A Senate poll projection was released showing the PSOE‑Frente Amplio bloc ahead with 114 seats.
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