Abstaining voters could tip Brazil's tightly contested presidential run-off
A record number of Brazilians skipped the first round, and both candidates hope to win over these non-voters in the upcoming run-off.
The first round saw a historic 21 percent abstention, with 33.4 million Brazilian adults staying home, the highest level since 1998. The run-off will feature incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth non-consecutive term against far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Both sides are courting the large pool of abstainers, whose reasons range from political disillusionment to logistical hurdles such as registration issues and remote polling locations.
Analysts note that Brazil’s deep polarization fuels voter fatigue, while poll data shows a near-dead-heat between the two candidates. Small shifts in turnout, especially in each candidate’s strongholds, could determine the final outcome.
Why it matters
Turnout among abstaining voters may decide Brazil's next president in a razor-thin race.
How this story developed
- Oct 4 Portugal sees alcohol dependence surge while Brazil heads to tightly contested election
- Oct 6 Flavio Bolsonaro secured a first‑round victory, making him the runoff frontrunner.
- Oct 9 Augusto Cury announced he will vote for Bolsonaro in the runoff.
- Oct 10 Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema and former President Michel Temer publicly endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro.
- Oct 10 President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign says Meta restricted his content on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp as the presidential runoff approaches.
- Oct 13 Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he will vote for a constitutional amendment that cuts Brazil’s standard workweek from 44 to 40 hours, reversing his party’s previous opposition.
- Oct 16 Senate ratified the constitutional amendment following Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s earlier announcement of support.
- Oct 16 A new Datafolha poll released Thursday shows Bolsonaro maintaining a narrow lead over Lula within the margin of error.
- Oct 19 The first televised debate between the two candidates was held a week before the runoff.
- Oct 20 Lula’s closing remarks were interrupted when the moderator announced he had run out of time.
- Oct 20 The court increased the daily penalty on Meta.
- Oct 22 Meta was ordered to demonstrate compliance with equal‑treatment rules within 24 hours.
- Oct 23 Most recent polls place Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as Brazil prepares for the October 25 runoff.
- Oct 24 Justice André Mendonça ruled that each candidate may obtain the other’s financial, tax and phone records.
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