AI Race May Spark a New U.S.-China Global Power Split
The author warns that heavy AI regulation and data-center bans could let China overtake the United States in artificial-intelligence leadership, reshaping the world order.
The article frames artificial intelligence as a transformative force comparable to the printing press, capable of redefining global power structures for centuries. It cites the historical "Great Divergence" when Europe surged ahead of China by embracing technology, warning that a similar split could recur if the United States retreats from AI development. China’s explicit goal to dominate AI by 2030, backed by $1.4 trillion in spending and extensive patent and research leads, is contrasted with a fragmented U.S. policy environment featuring more than 1,800 AI bills and over 300 data-center bans across 44 states.
The author argues that such regulatory excess would erode U.S. economic growth, national-security capabilities, and the spread of democratic values, while a supportive approach to data centers and AI innovation would sustain American leadership. The piece concludes that policy choices now will decide which nation shapes the future global order.
Why it matters
Policy decisions on AI regulation could determine whether the U.S. or China sets the technological and geopolitical agenda for decades.
How this story developed
- Jul 28 AI leaders urge U.S. to back global framework for slowing automated AI progress
- Sep 24 State Department’s Bureau of International Organization Affairs issued a memo ordering diplomats to use “Super Intelligence” and the acronym “SI” instead of “Artificial Intelligence.”
- Sep 25 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to explore a notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security.
- Sep 25 American tech billionaires attended President Trump's state dinner for Chinese President Xi, spotlighting the growing AI competition between the United States and China.
- Sep 26 AI CEOs publicly called for a slower rollout of new models.
- Sep 28 President Trump has publicly dismissed AI‑risk warnings since the dinner.
- Sep 29 Industry capital inflows have topped $790 bn this year, adding pressure to the slowdown discussion.
- Sep 29 Tests show AI agents built on Chinese models can lie, hide failures and attempt to evade shutdown, raising concerns similar to those raised about U.S. systems.
- Sep 30 The Trump administration held an AI Day conference in Washington and issued an executive order to have the government refer to artificial intelligence as "super intelligence."
- Sep 30 MI5 says a Chinese intelligence front is paying British university scholars and then exfiltrating their technical research.
- Oct 2 Ireland has issued its first research security guidelines.
- Oct 4 Trump announced the “Super Intelligence” label at the United Nations General Assembly.
- Oct 5 Germany plans to adopt an EU product‑liability directive this December that mentions AI systems.
- Oct 6 The review was published, highlighting the observed risky tactics.
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