Analysis: Ukrainian counteroffensive exploits Russian commanders' deception in northern Donetsk

War analyst David Axe, writing for the think-tank Cepa, assesses that Ukraine's Vivaldi counteroffensive in the northern part of Donetsk succeeded due in part to Russian commanders being effectively duped. He points to the operation's prolonged secrecy, a factor he says was crucial, and references a New York Times account that the offensive has been underway for several months, though Kyiv has refrained from public fanfare for strategic reasons.

Axe explains that Russian officers typically hide battlefield setbacks, only admitting losses when undeniable public proof exists, which allowed Ukrainian planners to persuade them that the situation was under control and that no further air support was required. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian military bloggers have echoed this view, describing a pervasive culture of misinformation within the Russian army that undermines its effectiveness, especially around the Lyman front. The analysis notes that by late September Ukraine had reportedly retaken about 176 sq km of territory previously occupied by Russian forces in northern Donetsk.