Brazil runoff polls show Bolsonaro and Lula locked in a tight race
Recent surveys indicate that Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are virtually tied ahead of Brazil's runoff election.
A batch of opinion polls released on Saturday suggests the Brazilian presidential runoff is a dead heat between Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The CNT/MDA poll, which surveyed 2,032 people from Oct 21-23, placed Bolsonaro at 46.3% and Lula at 45.0% with a 2.2-point margin of error. Datafolha’s survey of 4,050 respondents on Oct 23-24 gave 48% for Bolsonaro and 47% for Lula.
Quaest’s poll of 3,702 respondents reported 46% to 45%, while AtlasIntel, in partnership with Bloomberg, recorded 49.9% for Bolsonaro and 48.4% for Lula from a sample of 4,990 between Oct 18-23. BTG/Nexus’s poll of 2,000 people on Oct 23-24 showed 47% for Bolsonaro and 46% for Lula, also with a 2.2-point error. The convergence of these results points to a closely contested runoff scheduled for Sunday.
Why it matters
A narrow runoff outcome will shape Brazil's domestic policies and its role in regional affairs.
How this story developed
- Oct 4 Portugal sees alcohol dependence surge while Brazil heads to tightly contested election
- Oct 6 Flavio Bolsonaro secured a first‑round victory, making him the runoff frontrunner.
- Oct 9 Augusto Cury announced he will vote for Bolsonaro in the runoff.
- Oct 10 Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema and former President Michel Temer publicly endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro.
- Oct 10 President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign says Meta restricted his content on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp as the presidential runoff approaches.
- Oct 13 Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he will vote for a constitutional amendment that cuts Brazil’s standard workweek from 44 to 40 hours, reversing his party’s previous opposition.
- Oct 16 Senate ratified the constitutional amendment following Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s earlier announcement of support.
- Oct 16 A new Datafolha poll released Thursday shows Bolsonaro maintaining a narrow lead over Lula within the margin of error.
- Oct 19 The first televised debate between the two candidates was held a week before the runoff.
- Oct 20 Lula’s closing remarks were interrupted when the moderator announced he had run out of time.
- Oct 20 The court increased the daily penalty on Meta.
- Oct 22 Meta was ordered to demonstrate compliance with equal‑treatment rules within 24 hours.
- Oct 23 Most recent polls place Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as Brazil prepares for the October 25 runoff.
- Oct 24 Justice André Mendonça ruled that each candidate may obtain the other’s financial, tax and phone records.
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