High voter turnout ends Vucic’s rule in Serbia and propels Lula to Brazil’s presidency
Serbia’s election on Oct 25 saw a surge of voters oust the Serbian Progressive Party, while Brazil’s runoff on the same day brought Lula back to the presidency.
On Oct 25 Serbia recorded a turnout of about 4.3 million voters out of 6.45 million registered, the highest since 2000, and the Student List captured 52.7% of the vote, translating into 140 of the 250 parliamentary seats. The incumbent Serbian Progressive Party dropped to 39.2% and 104 seats, with its vote total falling only slightly to 1.69 million from roughly 1.78 million in 2023, while the surge of new voters added roughly 600,000 ballots.
The election was marked by police presence and reports of intimidation against student activists. In Brazil, the runoff saw turnout increase, giving Lula 64.26 million votes and a 51.8% share, defeating Bolsonaro’s 48.2% and securing a fourth term. Analysts linked Lula’s comeback to a WhatsApp channel, Lula’s Army, which amassed over 10 million followers between rounds. Both outcomes illustrate how sudden increases in participation can overturn entrenched political forces.
Why it matters
Massive voter turnouts shifted power in Serbia and Brazil, showing how citizen mobilisation can change entrenched regimes.
How this story developed
- Oct 5 Flavio Bolsonaro hails sweeping right-wing win in Brazil's Congress after election
- Oct 23 Tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand demonstrators assembled in Belgrade’s city centre ahead of the election.
- Oct 24 The student list has recruited about 250 candidates and polls show mixed standings, with one poll still favoring Vučić.
- Oct 25 A Datafolha poll released on October 22 gave Flávio Bolsonaro 47% and Lula 46%, a one‑point margin.
- Oct 25 The parliamentary election took place on 25 October.
- Oct 25 Final results are expected on Monday.
- Oct 25 The Supreme Court authorized longer voting hours and the electoral court ordered the arrest of Salvador's mobility secretary.
- Oct 26 Flávio Bolsonaro announced he will seek to nullify Brazil's presidential election after losing to Lula da Silva, alleging rule changes by the Supreme Court.
- Oct 26 Brazil remains a deeply divided country and Lula will have to navigate a hostile Congress if he is to make significant legislative changes in his fourth term.
- Oct 26 Lula defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff.
- Oct 26 Lula was declared winner with 51.8% of the vote, while Bolsonaro rejected the result.
- Oct 26 Bolsonaro pledged to seek annulment of the election result.
- Oct 26 U.S. President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei have not yet commented on Lula’s victory, and Trump views the result as a blow to the ‘Donroe’ doctrine aimed at sidelining China, Brazil’s main economic p
- Oct 26 Bolsonaro filed a judicial complaint alleging abuse of power by Lula.
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