MEMRI Founder Warned of Escalating Middle East Terror Threats Before October 7
On August 31 2023, MEMRI founder Yigal Carmon posted a warning about rising threats from Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups, but the alert went largely unnoticed in Jerusalem and Washington.
Yigal Carmon, the octogenarian founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute and former counter-terrorism adviser to Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin, published a briefing on August 31 2023 titled “Signs of Possible War in September-October.” In the piece, written from Jerusalem, he highlighted a surge in hostile rhetoric from Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other Iranian-backed militias, noting their procurement of increasingly advanced weapons that could inflict a large number of Israeli fatalities.
Carmon warned that such developments would likely provoke a significant Israeli retaliation. The warning received little attention from Israeli leaders or the United States; a week before Hamas’s Oct 7 attack, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan said the Middle East was quieter than in two decades. The lack of response underscored a missed opportunity to anticipate the ensuing conflict.
Why it matters
The ignored warning shows how early intelligence on regional threats can be overlooked, affecting preparedness for major conflicts.
How this story developed
- Sep 10 Oscar-winning Israelis debut documentary on Gaza civilian deaths at Venice Festival
- Sep 10 Naza was added to the Venice Film Festival line‑up only weeks before the event concludes.
- Sep 15 Lebanon’s National News Agency said Israeli forces set fire to a government hospital in the town of Mays al-Jabal, Marjayoun, in southern Lebanon on Friday. The report added that Israeli military vehicles moved through Al-Mansouri in the Tyre district, an explosion occurred in Al-Bayyadah, and artillery shelling targeted Al-Mansouri. The Israeli army has not responded, and the agency provided no specifics on the damage or any casualties at the hospital. These incidents come despite a US-mediated framework agreement reached in June that outlines a phased Israeli pull-out from Lebanese territory and the deployment of the Lebanese army to vacated zones. Israel continues to conduct operations in the south, maintaining control over areas occupied for decades and others seized in recent conflicts. Lebanese official figures record at least 4,386 killed and 12,407 wounded since March 2, while the Health Ministry cites a total of 8,953 deaths and 30,643 injuries from Israeli attacks since October 8, 2023.
- Sep 19 Netanyahu pledged legislation to strip citizenship from those who “defame” soldiers.
- Sep 26 The film’s worldwide theatrical rollout began late September and a free online streaming launch was announced for November.
- Sep 28 Overnight Israeli airstrikes and artillery hit several towns in southern Lebanon.
- Oct 2 A trailer for NAZA was released, revealing soldier testimonies and the film’s title origin.
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