Record-low Atlantic hurricane activity linked to historic El Niño surge
There have been no hurricanes through September, a first in reliable records, as a powerful El Niño suppresses storm formation.
Since reliable records started, the Atlantic basin has never completed September without a hurricane, but this year broke that pattern. Experts attribute the unprecedented lull to a record-setting El Niño that amplifies wind shear, disrupting storm development even though ocean waters are warm enough for cyclones. The same climate pattern is fueling a hyper-active Pacific season, giving Hawaii an unusually busy spell.
Tropical Storm Fay, which formed in mid-September, nearly reached hurricane intensity, but satellite wind estimates may have been inflated and the National Hurricane Center will reassess its status. Should Fay remain a tropical storm, the season could end on November 30 with zero hurricanes, a scenario never seen in modern history. The quiet Atlantic season offers some relief to regions still recovering from recent devastating hurricanes.
Why it matters
Understanding this rare lull helps gauge El Niño's global climate impact and hurricane risk forecasting.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 3 UN says the El Niño is expected to remain in place until February 2027.
- Sep 5 Czech forecasts include a possible rapid temperature rise to around 30 °C early next week.
- Sep 7 Britain announced cuts of more than 80 % to bilateral aid in eight African states.
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 A brief spell of 27‑28 °C heat is expected in southeast England on Sunday.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 13 Forecasts now show showers spreading across the west and east of the UK by Tuesday, following the brief heat spike.
- Sep 20 New forecasts show London reaching about 24 °C by Monday and showers expected in Manchester from Thursday.
- Sep 21 The system, now classified as a hurricane, is positioned about 270 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo and 190 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Forecasts suggest it could reach major-hurricane strength by Tuesday and maintain a trajectory offshore while dumping 4-8 inches of rain across Guerrero and Michoacan through Thursday. Tourist hubs such as Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara may experience rough seas and gusty conditions, and the moisture could trigger flash-flood threats in the U.S. Southwest later in the week.
- Sep 23 Polo intensified to Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.
- Sep 24 Authorities opened shelters and deployed thousands of military and Red Cross personnel to assist affected communities.
- Sep 29 Probability estimates now place a greater than 90% chance that the El Niño will remain very strong through February 2027.
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