UN and WMO warn unprecedented El Niño could trigger floods, droughts and humanitarian strain
Scientists say the developing 2026 El Niño may become unprecedented, with sea‑surface temperatures projected to rise up to 3.8 °C above average between November and January. The World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations have warned that the anomaly could bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of southern Africa while sparking drought and heat in Southeast Asia and Latin America. The UN has allocated more than $50 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund to support 11 vulnerable countries. Additional concerns include heightened risk to coral reefs and reports of cattle starvation in El Salvador, underscoring the broad environmental and food‑security threats.
Why it matters
Extreme weather from the El Niño threatens food, water and health for millions around the world.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 3 UN says the El Niño is expected to remain in place until February 2027.
- Sep 7 Britain announced cuts of more than 80 % to bilateral aid in eight African states.
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 21 The system, now classified as a hurricane, is positioned about 270 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo and 190 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Forecasts suggest it could reach major-hurricane strength by Tuesday and maintain a trajectory offshore while dumping 4-8 inches of rain across Guerrero and Michoacan through Thursday. Tourist hubs such as Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara may experience rough seas and gusty conditions, and the moisture could trigger flash-flood threats in the U.S. Southwest later in the week.
- Sep 23 Polo intensified to Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.
- Sep 24 Authorities opened shelters and deployed thousands of military and Red Cross personnel to assist affected communities.
- Sep 29 Probability estimates now place a greater than 90% chance that the El Niño will remain very strong through February 2027.
- Oct 2 Manila Water Philippine Ventures is stepping up its water-supply safeguards after PAGASA projected a very strong El Niño that could last until the first quarter of 2027.
- Oct 7 The Department of Agriculture in Bicol rolled out a major aid package for farmers and fishers ahead of the El Niño.
- Oct 22 The UN allocated more than $50 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund to 11 countries.
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