Black Sea grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine collapse, slashing export capacity

Escalating attacks on maritime infrastructure have effectively stopped civilian grain traffic in the Azov and Black Sea, erasing over 97% of the region’s export capability compared with the previous season. The only Russian terminal still handling cargo is a modest facility in Tuapse, capable of about 160,000 tonnes monthly. Analysts note that global wheat prices have risen roughly 6.5% this month, now sitting about 30% higher than a year ago, as buyers scramble for costlier alternatives.

Ukrainian ports in the Odesa hub ceased operations at the end of July, and no new vessel arrivals have been recorded, according to the agriculture minister. Russia’s major terminals in Novorossiysk and the KSK complex have been suspended after drone strikes, and the Taman terminal is also idle. While Ukraine is shifting about 45% of its grain to rail and Danube routes, Russia may divert limited volumes to Baltic, Caspian and Far Eastern ports, though longer distances will raise logistics costs.