Why a lasting peace in Ukraine remains elusive despite broad incentives
The author argues that no party has the ability or will to end the Ukraine war, noting miscalculations by Putin, Biden, Trump and the limited leverage of the United States.
According to the column, the war in Ukraine has become a grinding deadlock that inflicts severe losses on both sides and drags European economies down, while Russia grows weaker and more dependent on China. Missteps by Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Donald Trump, and Ukrainian officials are cited as reasons the conflict persists, with the United States possessing the only real leverage to mediate but repeatedly favoring one side.
The author notes that only China and far-right populists seem to gain from a prolonged war. A theoretical peace framework would involve the United States conditioning aid on Ukraine scaling back its demands, removing NATO membership from the agenda, allowing EU accession, and negotiating new borders, though the author remains skeptical about any realistic outcome. The column concludes that without a credible third-party push, the war will likely continue, worsening conditions for both nations.
How the sides frame it
MODERATE AGREEMENTBoth camps attribute the war’s persistence to mistakes by multiple actors, but left-leaning coverage stresses Russian propaganda and European obstruction of negotiations, while center coverage highlights expert analysis of strategic miscalculations and Zelensky’s claim that Russia is not ready to end the war.
LEFT
Left-leaning coverage frames the conflict as a deadlocked war driven by missteps of Putin, Western leaders and Ukrainian officials, highlighting Russian propaganda and European sabotage of negotiations.
CENTER
Center coverage frames the war as a result of strategic miscalculations by all sides, citing expert analysis of errors and Zelensky’s claim that Russia is not ready to end the war.
The left emphasises
- the war has become a grinding deadlock inflicting severe losses on both sides
- missteps by Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Donald Trump and Ukrainian officials are cited as reasons the conflict persists
- Russian diplomatic statements are portrayed as propaganda and false
How this story developed
- Sep 9 Russia's budget gap widens to 2.5% of GDP, Kremlin downplays risks
- Sep 21 Preliminary results show United Russia winning 355 of the 450 State Duma seats, surpassing its previous 2016 high. The foreign ministries of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway issued a joint statement condemning elections held in Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions seized by Russia as violations of Ukraine's sovereignty. They demanded accountability for those organizing the vote and urged Russia to end its war and accept an unconditional ceasefire. The same period saw France support the removal of oligarch Alisher Usmanov from the EU sanctions list, a move backed by Slovakia and linked to broader negotiations over detained French nationals in Azerbaijan.
- Sep 21 Western allies issued a joint declaration condemning the election as a breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- Sep 22 EU announced a €3.3 billion release for Ukrainian missile and drone purchases.
- Sep 22 Trump told reporters he wants to stop sending diesel abroad, citing the surge in diesel costs driven by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is reviewing whether a full or partial ban is feasible. Republican Senate hopefuls, including Ashley Hinson, have urged the government to adopt the ban to ease price pressures on Americans.
- Sep 23 Rural GOP lawmakers have publicly demanded action on diesel exports ahead of the November election.
- Sep 24 President Trump announced support for a diesel export ban.
- Sep 24 Reports allege that corporate managers pressured staff to vote for United Russia, suggesting coercion in the electoral process.
- Sep 26 The European Union has asked the administration to keep U.S. diesel exports flowing amid the price surge.
- Sep 26 At the UN General Assembly, Sergej Lavrov declared that the threat to Russian security will be eliminated and that peaceful life will return, while accusing Europe of blocking peace talks.
- Sep 27 German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul held a bilateral meeting with Sergej Lavrov at the United Nations, the first such talks at this level since the conflict began.
- Sep 28 Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski publicly urged Lavrov to end the war during a UN Security Council debate.
- Sep 29 The government announced a lift of the defence budget to a record level for the next fiscal year.
- Sep 29 Trump said he will look into limiting diesel exports.
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