Poll average shows centre-right parties leading the upcoming Spanish election by a wide margin

One week after the snap election was announced, the combined polling average shows the People's Party leading with around 32% support, ahead of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party at roughly 26% and Vox close to 19%. The emerging left coalition of Sumar and Podemos registers only low single-digit percentages, far below their combined result in the previous general election. The right-wing bloc appears to have gained ground since 2023, with Vox improving its share while the PP remains stable.

Modelling that incorporates the surveys' margin of error repeatedly indicates the PP could obtain about 135 seats and Vox around 66, together surpassing the threshold needed to form a government. The left-wing parties are projected to secure a combined total far short of their 2023 outcome, implying they must win back many votes in the remaining weeks.